Southern Comfort, Eastern Challenge: Solving Congress’s Exit Poll Puzzle | Elections News

Last Updated:April 30, 2026, 11:08 IST

Can the party convert isolated upticks into a broader national revival, or is it settling into a more limited, regional role in India’s electoral map?

The trends go beyond just seat counts and underline deeper issues for the Congress. (PTI)

Do the 2026 exit polls signal a comeback for the Congress, or do they underline its shrinking footprint? Projections across key states point to a familiar, uneven story—pockets of resilience in the South, particularly Kerala, but continued struggles in high-stakes battlegrounds like Assam and West Bengal.

At first glance, the numbers offer the Congress some relief. But a closer look suggests these gains are largely geography-specific and alliance-driven, raising a bigger question: Can the party convert isolated upticks into a broader national revival, or is it settling into a more limited, regional role in India’s electoral map?

A Tale Of Two Regions

Exit polls suggest the Congress could be on course for a comeback in Kerala, where the party-led UDF is projected to edge past the Left after a tight contest. This is significant as Kerala remains one of the few states where the Congress still has a strong organisational base and a clear bipolar contest, allowing anti-incumbency to work in its favour.

Across VoteVibe, Matrize, JVC, People’s Pulse and Axis My India, the UDF is consistently projected to cross the majority mark in the 140-member Assembly. The CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), while trailing in all estimates, remains within a range that keeps it in the contest.

In Tamil Nadu, however, the picture is more nuanced. Most projections indicate the ruling DMK alliance retaining power, with Congress as a junior ally benefiting indirectly rather than driving the outcome. Even here, the Congress’s gains are tied to alliance arithmetic, not an independent expansion of its vote base.

A DMK victory would reinforce Congress’s southern stronghold and preserve one of the INDIA bloc’s steadiest state-level alliances. For the party’s central leadership, a second term for Stalin is almost as valuable as being in power themselves because it ensures the BJP remains shut out of Tamil Nadu for another five years.

Struggles Where It Matters More

Beyond the South, the party’s challenges look sharper.

In Assam, almost all exit polls give a clear edge to the BJP-led NDA, pointing to a likely third consecutive term for the ruling alliance. Despite a campaign led by senior Congress figures, the party appears unable to convert anti-incumbency into a winning coalition.

CNN-News18’s VoteVibe puts NDA at 90-100 seats, JVC at 88-101, and Chanakya Strategies at 88-98, all comfortably above the majority mark of 64. The INDIA bloc is projected between 22-33 seats across polls, while the AIUDF faces near-decimation, with two of three agencies projecting it at 0-3 seats.

In West Bengal, the situation is even more telling. The contest remains largely bipolar between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with Congress struggling to remain relevant beyond pockets and attempting to position itself as a “third option”. Some projections even point to a tight or hung assembly, but not one where Congress is central to the outcome.

Across all pollsters that have put out projections for Bengal, most see it drawing a blank, with only a marginal uptick in a couple of surveys: People’s Pulse pegs it at 1-3 seats, Poll Diary gives it 3-5, while Matrize and P-Marq project zero.

The Broader Pattern

Across states, exit polls point to a familiar pattern. Congress performs best in direct contests, for instance in Kerala, relies on alliances in regional strongholds (Tamil Nadu), and struggles in multi-cornered or polarised fights (Assam and Bengal). At the same time, BJP appears to be consolidating or expanding its footprint in key battlegrounds like Assam and potentially Bengal, reinforcing a national asymmetry that continues to challenge the Congress.

The trends go beyond just seat counts and underline three deeper issues for the Congress. First is geographic shrinkage as the party’s competitiveness is increasingly limited to select states. Then comes the problem of alliance dependence where the party’s gains often come as a junior partner, not as the principal pole. There is also a narrative deficit as the party struggles to define the main electoral narrative in high-stakes contests like Bengal.

With counting scheduled for May 4, exit polls are only indicative. But if trends hold, the Congress may emerge with incremental gains in the South, especially Kerala, without fundamentally altering its national trajectory.

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