However, early-season risks, including weather volatility and pest pressures, could narrow the projected surplus as the season progresses. Global production estimates historically decline by around 100,000 tonnes from initial forecasts once crop conditions become clearer.
Under normal seasonal conditions, 2026-27 output is expected to ease to 26.0–26.1 million tonnes, while major weather disruptions or pest outbreaks could result in sharper declines.
In China, state cotton reserve sales that began on July 20 have averaged around 8,000 tonnes per auction, improving near-term domestic availability. However, future reserve replenishment and potential weather risks in Xinjiang could prompt an upward revision to import demand later in the season.
In India, ICAC has raised its 2025-26 production estimate to 5.5 million tonnes, up 9 per cent, while consumption is expected to reach nearly 5.9 million tonnes, up 7 per cent. Strong domestic mill demand and textile export growth are supporting the increase.
The government’s five-year Cotton Mission, the Kapas Kisan app and Kasturi Cotton Bharat’s blockchain-based traceability framework are also supporting longer-term sector stability.
Pakistan’s cotton production remains under pressure from climate variability, pest infestations, poor seed quality and high input costs. Output is estimated at 1.15 million tonnes in 2025-26, down 4 per cent, and is projected to decline further to 1.10 million tonnes in 2026-27, increasing the country’s reliance on raw cotton imports.
In the United States, planted area has been revised upwards by 5 per cent to 3.3 million hectares, lifting projected 2026-27 production to 2.9 million tonnes. Newly implemented US Section 301 tariffs of 10 per cent to 12.5 per cent are also reshaping global trade flows, with manufacturing hubs such as Vietnam potentially facing higher costs and buyers reassessing sourcing strategies.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (RM)
