He cautioned that prolonged disruptions to shipping through the vital route could have “exponential” impacts, urging all parties to immediately restore navigational freedom.
UN chief António Guterres warned that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global recession, pushing millions into poverty and hunger.
Even a quick resolution would slow growth and raise inflation.
Prolonged disruptions may worsen energy shortages, strain supply chains and reverse development gains, highlighting urgent need for stability.
Guterres highlighted that restrictions on free passage are already “impeding the delivery of oil, gas, fertiliser, and other critical commodities” and “strangling the global economy.” He outlined that even in the best case, where restrictions are lifted immediately, global supply chains would take months to recover, with growth slowing from 3.4 per cent to 3.1 per cent, inflation rising to 4.4 per cent, and trade weakening sharply. He noted that a world still recovering from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine would face further economic strain.
If disruptions linked to Iranian actions and a US blockade of Iranian ports persist through midyear, the consequences could deepen significantly. Guterres warned that 32 million people could be pushed into poverty, fertiliser shortages could reduce crop yields, and 45 million more people could face extreme hunger, reversing years of development gains. In the worst-case scenario, if disruptions continue through the end of the year, the world could face a full-scale global recession with widespread economic, political and social repercussions.
Diplomatic and operational responses are underway. The head of the United Nations Office for Project Services is leading a UN task force to explore the creation of a humanitarian corridor, while the International Maritime Organization is working on a framework to evacuate ships and seafarers if safe passage can be secured.
The crisis is already affecting global energy markets, with Brent crude prices hovering around $118 per barrel. According to Dario Liguti of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Southeast and South Asia were the first to feel the impact of what he described as “an unfolding energy crisis,” though the effects are now spreading globally, including to Europe.
Liguti stressed that the situation underscores the urgent need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. In line with global sustainability goals, he called for accelerated adoption of renewable energy and electrification of transport and heating systems, noting that such measures would enhance both environmental outcomes and energy security.
Guterres while updating correspondents in New York on Thursday, concluded with a direct appeal: “Open the Strait. Let all ships pass. Let the global economy breathe again,” warning that the longer the disruption continues, the harder it will be to reverse the damage.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (CG)
