For apparel, the monsoon is not just an agricultural event. It is an input-cost signal. A poor central-belt rain profile can travel from the farm to the factory as weaker staple quality, higher contamination premiums, cautious yarn quotes and tighter garment costing windows.
The sector enters this risk period with some cushion. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has raised its ****–** pressing estimate to *** lakh bales, plus or minus * per cent, after Maharashtra gains outweighed reductions in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. The government has also exempted all customs duties on cotton imports from June * to October **, ****, to improve availability for textile manufacturers. The US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA’s) April baseline had projected ****–** cotton area at **.* million hectares and output at **.* million ***-lb bales, but that view was built around normal monsoon assumptions. The updated weather signal now turns that baseline into a watchlist, not a certainty.
