India’s merchandise exports accelerated 19.6 per cent on-year in July to $44.2 billion, compared with 15.5 per cent growth in June, Crisil Intelligence said in its August 2026 first-cut trade analysis, citing Ministry of Commerce and Industry, CEIC and Crisil data. The increase was led by petroleum exports, which rose 68.0 per cent compared with 8.9 per cent in June, reflecting elevated global crude oil prices and prolonged uncertainty in West Asia. Core export growth eased to 14.9 per cent from 15.3 per cent.
India’s merchandise exports rose 19.6 per cent on-year in July to $44.2 billion, but imports rose 17.5 per cent to $76.2 billion.
The goods trade deficit widened to $32.0 billion, keeping cost and currency pressures in focus for sourcing teams.
Readymade garments, leather, gems and jewellery declined, while growth in cotton yarn, fabrics, and manmade yarn and fabrics moderated.
The same analysis said exports to the US rebounded, rising 12.8 per cent on-year after a 1.2 per cent decline in June. Shipments to the United Arab Emirates strengthened to 10.2 per cent growth from 3.6 per cent previously, indicating some normalisation of trade amid the West Asia conflict, while exports to Saudi Arabia declined 2.7 per cent on-year.
Merchandise imports grew 17.5 per cent on-year to $76.2 billion in July, lower than June’s 31.0 per cent growth, Crisil Intelligence said. Oil imports grew 17.7 per cent compared with 40.0 per cent in June, while core imports rose 20.3 per cent compared with 31.4 per cent. Gems and jewellery imports recorded a shallower decline of 2.2 per cent, compared with a 7.9 per cent fall previously. Import growth moderated because of slower growth in transport equipment, electrical and non-electrical machinery, chemicals, non-ferrous metals and electronic goods imports.
As a result, the merchandise trade deficit widened to $32.0 billion in July from $30.4 billion in June and $27.9 billion a year earlier, according to Crisil Intelligence. Preliminary estimates cited in the analysis suggest services trade remained resilient, with the surplus widening slightly to $17.0 billion from $16.4 billion a year earlier.
Crisil Intelligence expects India’s current account deficit (CAD) to widen to 1.5 per cent of gross domestic product in fiscal 2027 from 0.6 per cent in fiscal 2026. It said higher crude oil prices will remain the key driver of the goods trade deficit, and expects crude oil prices to average $82-87 per barrel this fiscal compared with $70.3 per barrel in fiscal 2026. Global trade disruptions may continue to weigh on merchandise exports, although robust services exports should provide partial support, the analysis said.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk
